Volume 57, Issue 4
Fitting Heavy-Tailed Distributions to Mortality Indexes for Longevity Risk Forecasts

Longyu Chen, Tsz Chai Fung, Yinhuan Li & Liang Peng

J. Math. Study, 57 (2024), pp. 486-498.

Published online: 2024-12

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  • Abstract

Modeling and predicting mortality rates are crucial for managing and mitigating longevity risk in pension funds. To address the impacts of extreme mortality events in forecasting, researchers suggest directly fitting a heavy-tailed distribution to the residuals in modeling mortality indexes. Since the true mortality indexes are unobserved, this fitting relies on the estimated mortality indexes containing measurement errors, leading to estimation biases in standard inferences within the actuarial literature. In this paper, the empirical characteristic function (ECF) technique is employed to fit heavy-tailed distributions to the time series residuals of mortality indexes and normal distributions to the measurement errors. Through a simulation study, we empirically validate the consistency of our proposed method and demonstrate the importance and challenges associated with making inferences in the presence of measurement errors. Upon analyzing publicly available mortality datasets, we observe instances where mortality indexes may follow highly heavy-tailed distributions, even exhibiting an infinite mean. This complexity adds a layer of difficulty to the statistical inference for mortality models.

  • AMS Subject Headings

62M10, 62P05

  • Copyright

COPYRIGHT: © Global Science Press

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@Article{JMS-57-486, author = {Chen , LongyuFung , Tsz ChaiLi , Yinhuan and Peng , Liang}, title = {Fitting Heavy-Tailed Distributions to Mortality Indexes for Longevity Risk Forecasts}, journal = {Journal of Mathematical Study}, year = {2024}, volume = {57}, number = {4}, pages = {486--498}, abstract = {

Modeling and predicting mortality rates are crucial for managing and mitigating longevity risk in pension funds. To address the impacts of extreme mortality events in forecasting, researchers suggest directly fitting a heavy-tailed distribution to the residuals in modeling mortality indexes. Since the true mortality indexes are unobserved, this fitting relies on the estimated mortality indexes containing measurement errors, leading to estimation biases in standard inferences within the actuarial literature. In this paper, the empirical characteristic function (ECF) technique is employed to fit heavy-tailed distributions to the time series residuals of mortality indexes and normal distributions to the measurement errors. Through a simulation study, we empirically validate the consistency of our proposed method and demonstrate the importance and challenges associated with making inferences in the presence of measurement errors. Upon analyzing publicly available mortality datasets, we observe instances where mortality indexes may follow highly heavy-tailed distributions, even exhibiting an infinite mean. This complexity adds a layer of difficulty to the statistical inference for mortality models.

}, issn = {2617-8702}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.4208/jms.v57n4.24.06}, url = {http://global-sci.org/intro/article_detail/jms/23685.html} }
TY - JOUR T1 - Fitting Heavy-Tailed Distributions to Mortality Indexes for Longevity Risk Forecasts AU - Chen , Longyu AU - Fung , Tsz Chai AU - Li , Yinhuan AU - Peng , Liang JO - Journal of Mathematical Study VL - 4 SP - 486 EP - 498 PY - 2024 DA - 2024/12 SN - 57 DO - http://doi.org/10.4208/jms.v57n4.24.06 UR - https://global-sci.org/intro/article_detail/jms/23685.html KW - Characteristic function, Lee-Carter model, mortality rates, unit root model. AB -

Modeling and predicting mortality rates are crucial for managing and mitigating longevity risk in pension funds. To address the impacts of extreme mortality events in forecasting, researchers suggest directly fitting a heavy-tailed distribution to the residuals in modeling mortality indexes. Since the true mortality indexes are unobserved, this fitting relies on the estimated mortality indexes containing measurement errors, leading to estimation biases in standard inferences within the actuarial literature. In this paper, the empirical characteristic function (ECF) technique is employed to fit heavy-tailed distributions to the time series residuals of mortality indexes and normal distributions to the measurement errors. Through a simulation study, we empirically validate the consistency of our proposed method and demonstrate the importance and challenges associated with making inferences in the presence of measurement errors. Upon analyzing publicly available mortality datasets, we observe instances where mortality indexes may follow highly heavy-tailed distributions, even exhibiting an infinite mean. This complexity adds a layer of difficulty to the statistical inference for mortality models.

Chen , LongyuFung , Tsz ChaiLi , Yinhuan and Peng , Liang. (2024). Fitting Heavy-Tailed Distributions to Mortality Indexes for Longevity Risk Forecasts. Journal of Mathematical Study. 57 (4). 486-498. doi:10.4208/jms.v57n4.24.06
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